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Lewis Sheiner


2020
Ljubljana, Slovenia



2019
Stockholm, Sweden

2018
Montreux, Switzerland

2017
Budapest, Hungary

2016
Lisboa, Portugal

2015
Hersonissos, Crete, Greece

2014
Alicante, Spain

2013
Glasgow, Scotland

2012
Venice, Italy

2011
Athens, Greece

2010
Berlin, Germany

2009
St. Petersburg, Russia

2008
Marseille, France

2007
KÝbenhavn, Denmark

2006
Brugge/Bruges, Belgium

2005
Pamplona, Spain

2004
Uppsala, Sweden

2003
Verona, Italy

2002
Paris, France

2001
Basel, Switzerland

2000
Salamanca, Spain

1999
Saintes, France

1998
Wuppertal, Germany

1997
Glasgow, Scotland

1996
Sandwich, UK

1995
Frankfurt, Germany

1994
Greenford, UK

1993
Paris, France

1992
Basel, Switzerland



Printable version

PAGE. Abstracts of the Annual Meeting of the Population Approach Group in Europe.
ISSN 1871-6032

Reference:
PAGE 28 (2019) Abstr 9206 [www.page-meeting.org/?abstract=9206]


PDF poster/presentation:
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Tutorial


B-10 Nicky Best Use of informative priors in model-informed drug development

Nicky Best

GlaxoSmithKline

Objectives:

  • To introduce methods for constructing informative priors from historical data or by elicitation from experts
  • To discuss different methods for weighting priors in relation to data and for assessing and handling conflicts between prior and data
  • To share examples of how such priors are implemented in models to inform different stages of drug development

Overview/Description of presentation:

This presentation will provide a brief overview of some of approaches for combining prior information and data for model-based inference and decision-making for drug development. I will discuss the use of expert elicitation methods to “bridge the gap” between existing in vitro/pre-clinical data and expected treatment effects in patient populations, and show how the elicited priors can be used to calculate expected probability of success of clinical development plans. I will also discuss “dynamic borrowing” methods for constructing robust priors directly from historical data and using these in a Bayesian model which adaptively down-weighs the prior according to the observed conflict between prior and new data. This approach will be illustrated with case studies using historical control data to supplement the control arm in a new clinical trial, and extrapolation of clinical efficacy from adult to paediatric populations.

Conclusions/Take home message:

The methods and examples presented in this tutorial illustrate the possibility to enable robust inclusion of prior information into model-based drug development.



References:
[1] Dallow N, Best N, Montague TH. (2018). Better decision making in drug development through adoption of formal prior elicitation. Pharmaceutical Statistics. doi:10.1002/pst.1854
[2] Schmidli, H. , Gsteiger, S. , Roychoudhury, S. , O'Hagan, A. , Spiegelhalter, D. and Neuenschwander, B. (2014), Robust meta-analytic-predictive priors in clinical trials with historical control information. Biometrics, 70: 1023-1032. doi:10.1111/biom.12242