Probability Statements About Predicted Kinetic/Dynamic Profiles In Population Analyses
Dr. Hariolf Schmid (1), Dr. G. Strehlau (2)
1) Animal Health Divison 6.7, 2) Ciba Information Services 7.0 Ciba-Geigy AG CH-4002 Basel, Switzerland
A__ contains F__ which has a highly selective activity against ticks. Cows were treated with 2.5 mg/kg A__ at 2 two 12 weeks pre parturition. In each cow the F__ concentration levels in milk had been determined several times over a period of 22 days after calving.
One of several questions of interest was:
Estimation of the time when F__ concentration in milk lies below the limit of detection with 95% probability.
In order to solve this problem, a Bayesian pharmacokinetic population modelling approach was applied and the posterior distributions of population parameters of interest were determined. Based on these distributions and the considered dosing regimen, a sample of individual concentration time profiles for îfuture individuals" were generated. Viewing these profiles together, the desired probability statements are straightforward to obtain.
This evaluation was performed by using the software POPKAN.