Christoffer W. Thornøe, Judith L. Jacobsen and Henrik Madsen
Technical University of Denmark & Novo Nordisk A/S
Grey-box PK/PD Modelling of insulin is presented as a promising way of modelling the dynamics of the insulin/glucose system and to estimate model and derived PK/PD parameters. The concept behind grey-box modelling consists of using a priori knowledge, along with information from data in the estimation of model parameters. The PK/PD parameters are estimated simultaneously and used for simula-tion which fits the measured data very well, thereby describing the uptake, delivery and effect of two types of insulin.
The grey-box state space model for the effect compartment is modelled using stochastic differential equations. The parameters are estimated using the Maximum Likelihood method, in which the likehood function is updated using the Kalman Filter.
Conclusion:
- The advantage of using grey-box PK/PD models is that the prior physiologic knowledge is combined with the information from the data.
- It is possible to assess the correlation between PK and PD parameters because they are estimated simultaneously.
- More reliable information about the insulin/glucose system is obtained since all the available data is used in the estimation procedure.
Reference: PAGE 11 () Abstr 352 [www.page-meeting.org/?abstract=352]
Poster: poster